Published with frozen evidence.
The receipt binds the published result to the sealed export and its conformance record. It does not regenerate any trading figure.
- Receipt
- assay-003-keel-systematic-fx-rules-eurgbp-v1
- Market
- EUR/GBP
- Cells
- 20
- Result
- 0 passed
- Evidence state
- Sealed
- Publication
- Published
What the receipt binds.
- Target class
- Keel's five shipped systematic FX price rules
- Mechanism
- Two momentum rules and three mean-reversion fades
- Evaluation window
- 2 January 2022 to 29 May 2026
- Timeframes
- H1 and M30
- Split
- 70% in-sample and 30% out-of-sample
- Cost treatments
- Measured market cost and original 2.5 bps study cost
- Evidence engine commit
e198539b68b644b079f9b4fc514f6d9f5b86ea04- Conformance record
assay-003-conformance.md
Twenty cells. Zero passed.
| Rule | Timeframe | OOS profit factor | OOS net | Buy-and-hold | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MA crossover 10/30 | H1 | 0.78 | −7.38 | +1.96 | Fails net |
| Donchian breakout 20 | H1 | 0.73 | −6.83 | +1.96 | Fails net |
| Z-score fade | H1 | 0.78 | −0.30 | +1.96 | Fails net |
| RSI fade | H1 | 0.83 | −1.47 | +1.96 | Fails net |
| Donchian fade | H1 | 0.94 | −0.39 | +1.96 | Fails net |
| MA crossover 10/30 | M30 | 0.77 | −8.05 | +1.98 | Fails net |
| Donchian breakout 20 | M30 | 0.65 | −11.28 | +1.98 | Fails net |
| Z-score fade | M30 | 0.86 | −1.26 | +1.98 | Fails net |
| RSI fade | M30 | 1.03 | +0.28 | +1.98 | Fails benchmark |
| Donchian fade | M30 | 0.97 | −0.39 | +1.98 | Fails net |
One measured-cost cell ended slightly positive. It still failed the frozen claim because it trailed buy-and-hold and lost under the original 2.5 bps cost treatment.
Inspect the sealed record.
Open the article, measured result files and public verification records attached to this receipt.
The frozen test frame.
- Momentum rules
- MA crossover 10/30 and Donchian breakout 20
- Fade rules
- Z-score 20/2, RSI 14 with 30/70 thresholds, and Donchian fade 20
- Risk brackets
- 15 bps stop and 25 bps target
- Quiet-hours window
- 00:00 to 06:59 UTC for fade rules
- Starting equity
- 10,000
- Flat stake
- 50
- Measured costs
- About 2.06 bps for momentum and 1.80 bps for fades
- Benchmark
- Same-window buy-and-hold under the same cost treatment
Method note
The configuration was frozen before evaluation. Every rule was read in-sample and out-of-sample under both cost treatments. Only out-of-sample cells can pass or fail the registered claim.
What this receipt supports.
A paper-only, mechanism-level finding about five frozen rules on one pair, across two timeframes and two cost treatments.
A live-money claim, a forecast, a recommendation, or a conclusion about every systematic trading rule.
The sealed export remains independently verifiable.
| File | SHA-256 |
|---|---|
metrics.json | c15ad25ea9621d7648dc44c81231db2bd487060afdd3ea032194243820cfde27 |
config.json | ef2af4adb686aa9591b7cd004b80d9db5c6052cd2667baf1211fd7932d23786d |
conformance.md | b5907b19d778dc004496fd317f7a263daee8fd5feb50b572cc7f2e4194ae1793 |
receipt.json | 8afa9d76894b9f58977368e634384798eec21e7665f639c84405b65aa95e6082 |
SHA256SUMS | 7e03975a70080d710a9de6324f4b3c0eca2ede536dd36c9c5bf6ef1a7112add0 |
EXPORT_SHA256SUMS | 151895c5e73f5bba9b383f3ccc5560af0b307816d837230563ce212c971a7f37 |
The source capsule checksum and the Assay export checksum are both public. The export record carries the conformance file across the one-way evidence boundary.
Publication record.
| Date | Review | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Gate 0 pre-registration | Frozen before evaluation |
| 2026-07-11 | Keel evaluation | One-shot run completed; 0 of 20 cells passed |
| 2026-07-11 | Assay export | Sealed capsule copied one-way into Assay |
| 2026-07-11 | Owner publication gate | Approved for publication |